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		<title>Automatic Matching &#8211; I Can Hardly Contain My Enthusiasm</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/automatic-matching-i-can-hardly-contain-my-enthusiasm/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Mar 2008 14:09:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Baker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Automatic Matching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budget Optimiser]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Campaign Optimiser]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Expanded Matching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Optimised Ad-Serving]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PPC Campaigns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Preferred Cost Bidding]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Standard Delivery Method]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.adwordsprofessional.com/automatic-matching-i-can-hardly-contain-my-enthusiasm.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Google are currently beta-testing a new service, called ˜Automatic Matching&#8217;. The premise is simple , if you aren&#8217;t spending your complete budget, then they will show your adverts on searches that you aren&#8217;t bidding on, if they think it will be successful. On the face of it, this may sound like a good idea, but [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Google are currently beta-testing a new service, called  ˜Automatic Matching&#8217;. The premise is simple , if you aren&#8217;t spending your  complete budget, then they will show your adverts on searches that you aren&#8217;t  bidding on, if they think it will be successful.  On the face of it, this may sound like a good idea, but  Google&#8217;s history with automated tools is, to put it mildly, poor.  Looking back at their innovations over the past 12 months,  there has been a steady stream of ˜improvements&#8217; that will allow you to manage  your campaign with less effort. And at the current time, I am using precisely  none of them.  Now, it is true that as a PPC account manager I should  probably be doing things by hand, but the simple fact is that whenever I have  used Google&#8217;s new tools, I&#8217;ve been disappointed. Here are a few examples&#8230;</p>
<h2>Expanded Matching</h2>
<p>When this first came out, it did so with little in the way  of warnings. The first I knew about it was when my clickthrough rate collapsed  on a few of my campaigns. Suddenly, where I had been bidding on leather beds on  broad match, now my advert was appearing on searches for upholstered beds.  In truth, I got lucky. Somebody who searched for upholstered  beds clicked on my advert. As a result, it appeared in the Search Query report.  If nobody clicks on your advert having searched for a term, then you don&#8217;t know  about it.  Even now, nearly a year later, if I search for upholstered  beds, there are two adverts for leather beds. I guess some people don&#8217;t run  search query reports very often&#8230;  This option was designed to fill in all the keywords that  are relevant to your campaign, but that you haven&#8217;t thought of. But the problem  is that you can&#8217;t have Broad Matching without Google throwing in Expanded  matches. Since Expanded Matching is totally unreliable, and you can never even  tell what searches fire your adverts, Broad Matching has become, for me at  least, unusable.</p>
<h2>Pay-Per-Action</h2>
<p>This sounds like a great idea. Basically, you tell Google how  much you&#8217;re willing to pay for somebody to perform an action, and Google  adjusts your bids accordingly.  So I tried it on my two biggest, and most consistent  accounts. Both of them had a very predictable cost per conversion, and I set  that as my objective. The result? Virtually no traffic. In two days, a campaign  that usually collected 250 clicks per day managed only 2 clicks (neither of  which converted).  But the point is that this is automated. It&#8217;s never likely  to work very well. Either it&#8217;ll bounce your bids all over the place depending  on the results from the previous day, or it won&#8217;t be sensitive to changes over  time, and your bids will always be in the wrong place.  It takes a human brain to work out whether the variation in  the conversion rate is just random, or part of a more significant trend.  Perhaps, with a lot of work, a computer could be programmed to draw reasonable  conclusions, but as a rule, the tools implemented by Google tend to be  relatively simple. I feel that my test could have been a lot worse , Google  could have spent far too much per click. Underbidding may cost me potential  sales, but at least I can&#8217;t make a loss!</p>
<h2>Site And Category Exclusion</h2>
<p>Alright , I wasn&#8217;t totally honest earlier. I am using this  one for a few of my campaigns. The idea of this tool is that you may want to  include or exclude certain categories of websites when you advertise on the  Content Network.  So, for example, you may decide that you don&#8217;t want your  advert to appear on Forums, or on Video-sharing sites. And rather than input  them all manually, this allows you to filter out irrelevant websites en-masse.  This sounds great, but it raises two questions. The first  one is that if these sites aren&#8217;t relevant to your adverts, why are they  appearing there in the first place? This is Content Targeting. It&#8217;s targeted on  the relevance of the content to your website. If it&#8217;s relevant, why do you not  want to appear there. If (as is more likely), they aren&#8217;t relevant, why does  Google show your adverts there?  But the problem with the whole thing is that it&#8217;s just a  shortcut to avoid you doing some work. Ever since Google implemented its  Placement Report, you have been able to see which sites are working for you,  and which ones aren&#8217;t. Armed with this information, surely it&#8217;s not that  difficult to create a Placement Targeted campaign, and choose which websites  you DO want to appear on. It doesn&#8217;t take very long, and you can always  reactivate your other Content Network campaign occasionally, to make sure that  you aren&#8217;t missing valuable traffic.</p>
<h2>Budget Optimiser</h2>
<p>This one&#8217;s just a bad idea. The idea is that you decide your  daily budget, and Google adjusts your bids to get you as many clicks as  possible for your money.  That&#8217;s <strong>as many CLICKS  as possible for your money</strong>. Exactly why would you want to do that? If  you&#8217;re selling something, you want to maximise the value (or at the least, the  number) of sales for your money. If you are generating leads, you want as many  leads as possible for your money. So who would possibly want to maximise the  number of clicks that they get for their money?  I can&#8217;t think of many businesses that would find that  useful. The simple fact is that clicks are going to be worth different amounts,  depending on the conversion rate (and in some cases, conversion value). Google  can&#8217;t take that into account, so it could easily bid a lot on low-quality  keywords, simply because they are cheaper than the more competitive, more  relevant terms.</p>
<h2>Campaign Optimiser</h2>
<p>There&#8217;s that word again&#8230; Optimiser (optimizer if you&#8217;re  American). A quick look up on the Interweb tells me than optimization is  defined as: œThe  decision strategy of choosing the alternative that gives the best or optimal  overall value  The best value of what? Well, that&#8217;s up to you, really.  In most cases, it&#8217;ll be profit, Google doesn&#8217;t know what a conversion is worth  to you, But it doesn&#8217;t even take into account your conversion rates. Here are  the changes it will propose, along with Google&#8217;s definition&#8230;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Daily budget  adjustment</strong> Budget changes can affect your ad visibility and bring you more targeted  traffic.</li>
<li><strong>New keywords</strong> Proposals might include new targeted keywords that relate to your landing page.</li>
<li><strong>Deleted keywords</strong> If the Campaign Optimiser identifies poorly performing keywords, it may propose  removing them.</li>
<li><strong>Changed keyword  matching options</strong> The right matching option can help you reach customers more effectively.</li>
<li><strong>Keyword CPC bid  adjustments</strong> Your cost-per-click bid (in addition to your ad quality) affects your ad  position.</li>
<li><strong>Ad text edits</strong> The Campaign Optimiser may suggest changes to make your ad text more effective.</li>
<li><strong>Refined location  targeting</strong> We will suggest that you target only those regions that perform well for you</li>
</ul>
<p>So, it will tell you if your budget&#8217;s wrong, even though it  doesn&#8217;t know if your campaign&#8217;s profitable or not.  It will recommend new keywords , if you&#8217;ve ever used  Google&#8217;s keyword suggestion tool, you&#8217;ll know how well that works.  It&#8217;ll tell you which keywords aren&#8217;t working. Based on what?  Clickthrough rate? Cost per click? These are not things you want to be basing  your decisions on.  So Google knows which matching types are appropriate for  you? How? If it knows that there are keywords that you could pick up through  Phrase Match or Broad Match, then they should be added in on Exact Match. If it  doesn&#8217;t, then why would it recommend them?  Bid adjustments are just a bad idea, for all the reasons  discussed already.  Advert Text edits??? Google briefly trialled an Advert Text  writing tool. It was so bad, I lack the words to describe it here. I wish I&#8217;d  kept some of the adverts it suggested, but sadly they are no more&#8230;  Regional Targeting? It all comes back to what Google calls  optimisation. They want to maximise your clickthrough rate. Which is definitely  not your objective.</p>
<h2>Preferred Cost Bidding</h2>
<p>Haven&#8217;t tried this one, but it worries me a bit. The idea is  that you decide how much you want to pay per click, and Google adjusts your  bids accordingly. Sounds OK, but one of the few backups that you&#8217;ve got if  things go wrong is your maximum bid , you can&#8217;t pay more per click than this  under any circumstances. I&#8217;m sure that Google are going to be careful, but how well  would this tool work?  If you want to pay &pound;0.20 per click, but yesterday, a &pound;0.30  bid generated clicks for &pound;0.19 each, will Google adjust your bids to &pound;0.31?  This won&#8217;t increase your cost per click by &pound;0.01, as a rule. Either your advert  will stay in the same place, and your cost per click won&#8217;t change, or your  advert will move up a spot, and your cost per click could jump sharply.  Extending this example, if you need to pay &pound;0.19 per click  to appear fourth, and &pound;0.31 to appear third, then this change would increase  your cost per click from &pound;0.19 to &pound;0.31. Which one does Google go for if it&#8217;s  in charge?  The point is that you can&#8217;t choose an actual cost per click  , it&#8217;ll be one of a set of possible values, based on your Quality Score, and  the Quality Scores and bids of your competitors&#8230;</p>
<h2>Optimised Ad-Serving</h2>
<p>Of all the stupid ideas I&#8217;ve heard in this business, none  can compete with Optimised Ad-Serving. Here&#8217;s how Google explain it:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>œOptimize (default):</em> The system will favor ads with a combination of a high  clickthrough rate (CTR) and Quality Score. These ads will enter the ad auction  more often.</p></blockquote>
<p>So, you&#8217;re running more than one advert for this to make any  difference. Why would you be doing that? To find out whether the new advert is  better or worse than the old one? So how useful is it is your new advert gets  shown 1% of the time, and the old advert gets shown 99% of the time. You&#8217;ll  never get decent results.  I can only guess that Google want to limit your risk by  showing the established advert more often. And it would be useful if you could  do this, but a more useful tool would be to allow you to select the relative  frequencies that different adverts show. That way, you could show your old  advert 75% of the time, and the new one 25% of the time, if you wanted to.  A number of times, I&#8217;ve done assessments of campaigns for  potential clients, and they&#8217;ve been testing multiple adverts, but with  Optimised Ad-Serving. The result was that they could never optimise their  adverts, as one got all the traffic.</p>
<h2>Standard Delivery Method</h2>
<p>Of all the stupid ideas I&#8217;ve heard in this business, none  can compete with the ˜Standard Delivery Method&#8217;. Except possibly the Optimised  Ad-Serving. Here&#8217;s how Google explain it:  <em>œStandard delivery</em> distributes your budget throughout the day to avoid reaching your  budget early on. Your ads will show periodically throughout the day.  So, if you&#8217;ve got &pound;100 to spend per day, and you&#8217;re paying  &pound;1 per click, but your budget runs out by 10am, Google thinks your advert  should appear and disappear randomly throughout the day.  WHY???????? Wouldn&#8217;t it make more sense to cut your bids to  &pound;0.20, and get 500 clicks per day instead of 100 clicks per day, for the same  money?  If you only want your advert to run at certain times of day,  select those hours for it to run. But randomly appearing? Is there any benefit  at all in this?</p>
<h2>Keyword Suggestion Tool</h2>
<p>Since Broad Matching doesn&#8217;t work, it&#8217;s not surprising that  Keyword Suggestion doesn&#8217;t work very well either. I decided to try it out this  morning, on a website that sells conservatory furniture. That&#8217;s all they sell,  and their entire website is dedicated to this one thing.  Google&#8217;s suggestions? bedroom furniture, leather furniture,  lighting fixtures, outdoor lighting, art prints, chandeliers, art education,  school furniture, furniture rental, furniture shipping&#8230;  Need I go on? None of the keywords were even slightly  relevant , no mention of conservatories, cane, or anything else remotely  useful.  Maybe I have already added everything vaguely relevant, but  I doubt it, somehow.  The tool may have some value , perhaps if you run it, it may  give you a new idea for a keyword. But it&#8217;s pretty clear that you wouldn&#8217;t want  to use Google&#8217;s suggestions in general.</p>
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
<p>So, back to the new tool, then. Automated Matching. Google  clearly can&#8217;t look at my site, and figure out what it&#8217;s about , you can see  that from the Keyword Suggestion tool. It&#8217;s not very good at working out other,  similar keywords , you can see that from Broad Matching results. It can&#8217;t  measure the success or failure of a keyword, since it doesn&#8217;t use the  conversion information. It can&#8217;t determine what you can afford to pay for a  click, since it doesn&#8217;t know anything about your business. And yet, despite all  of that, Google is willing to spend any remaining budget on keywords, without  even telling you what they are.  I believe that one person can keep an account well-managed  in about 10 minutes per day, plus an hour every now and then to do a bit more  analysis.  Is it really a sound business-decision to give Google control  of your money? Automated Matching? I think I&#8217;ll pass&#8230;</p>


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		<title>When The Adwords Sweet Spots Turn Sour&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/when-the-adwords-sweet-spots-turn-sour/</link>
		<comments>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/when-the-adwords-sweet-spots-turn-sour/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Oct 2007 08:42:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Baker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Advert Text]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bidding]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Content Network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PPC Campaigns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Testing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.adwordsprofessional.com/when-the-adwords-sweet-spots-turn-sour.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I blogged a while back about the sweet spot for your campaign, and how to find it.Basically, you estimate the conversion rate, cost per click and clickthrough rate for each position that your advert can appear in, and calculate how profitable each one is. You should find that one position is more profitable than the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I blogged a while back about <a href="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/google-adwords/ppc-advertising-where-is-the-sweet-spot.html">the sweet spot for your campaign</a>, and how to find it.Basically, you estimate the conversion rate, cost per click and clickthrough rate for each position that your advert can appear in, and calculate how profitable each one is. You should find that one position is more profitable than the ones above or below it, and so this is where you should be putting your advert.  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph1.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 1" /> Which is all fine and dandy. But the other day, I was doing some forecasts and my profit curve looked like this:  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph2.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 2" /> Clearly, I&#8217;d made a mistake! So I went back, and checked my forecasts for the clickthrough rate, the conversion rate and the cost per click.  Here they are&#8230;  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph3.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 3" /> <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph4.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 4" /> <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph5.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 5" /> I&#8217;ve changed the actual figures, but the result is the same. With a profit per conversion of &pound;300, this gave me an inverted profit curve.  Assuming that the cost per click is higher for higher positions, the conversion rate is lower or the same for higher positions, and the clickthrough rate is higher for higher positions, the profit from each conversion must be higher in lower positions.  In my case, the conversion rate was clearly higher, the lower my advert appeared. If this effect outweighed the increased number of clicks that I got in a higher position, then it&#8217;s possible that I&#8217;d predicted that I&#8217;d get more conversions in a lower position than in a higher position.  For example, if 5th place generated 5,000 clicks with a 3% conversion rate, and 6th position generated 4,000 clicks with a 4% conversion rate, then 5th place would generate 150 conversions, and 6th would generate 160 conversions.  Clearly this is a danger when forecasting, particularly if you extrapolate beyond the range of your data. I can&#8217;t accept that you can get more conversions from a lower position in practise unless you have a restrictive budget (which I didn&#8217;t), so I looked at my data to see if this was the problem&#8230;  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph6.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 6" /> So that&#8217;s not the problem.  Finally, I looked at the profit per conversion, the number of conversions, and the product of the two (the total profit).  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph7.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 7" /> The number of conversions is lower in lower positions, the profit from each is higher, and you get this &#8216;inverted&#8217; profit curve &#8211; a &#8216;sour spot&#8217;.  So, the question is whether this is possible in reality, or if it&#8217;s just a flaw in the forecasting method.  The answer is surprisingly simple once you think about it. If you advertise in a very low position (say, 100), you&#8217;ll get almost no conversions, and hence make almost no profit. The true shape of this curve would probably be something like this:  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/images/sweetspotsour/graph8.jpg" alt="PPC Graph 8" /> It&#8217;s possible that multiplying these two monotonic functions (conversions and profit per conversion) can generate two turning points in your profit curve &#8211; a maximum and a minimum. I can accept that this is possible, and graphs of the above shape will have a sweet-spot of either 1st or the local maximum (in the above example, 6th).  This raises one final question. In the above example, I looked at the top six positions, saw the sour-spot and understood that I needed to extrapolate further. But if I&#8217;d only run the advert in positions 3 to 8, I would have seen a sweet-spot, and thought no more about it. In this case, I&#8217;d still (just about) have the correct sweet-spot, but another time, I may have missed out on potential profit. And perhaps I have done.  My conclusion is this &#8211; extrapolate your data as far as possible, limiting your graph only at your total budget. See if this kind of shape is a possibility, and investigate it.</p>


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		<title>Google Adwords CPA model launches</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/google-adwords-cpa-model-launches/</link>
		<comments>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/google-adwords-cpa-model-launches/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2007 19:33:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shane Quigley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PPC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/google-adwords-cpa-model-launches.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tonight Google have launched their new CPA model that we have been hearing about so much. The new &#8216;conversion optimizer&#8217; tool as they are calling it will ask you for a maximum bid and attempt to optimise your adwords campaign to hit this target. It will only work on campaigns that are seeing at leasts [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tonight Google have launched their new CPA model that we have been hearing about so much.</p>
<p>The new &#8216;conversion optimizer&#8217; tool as they are calling it will ask you for a maximum bid and attempt to optimise your adwords campaign to hit this target. It will only work on campaigns that are seeing at leasts 300 conversions per month but it sounds interesting.</p>
<p>The only downside we can see is that we can all hit low cpa&#8217;s by dropping our bids and only bidding on very specific keywords, how it takles volume conversions is another thing!</p>
<p>Let us know your thoughts&#8230;.</p>
<p>Google announcement here: <a href="http://adwords.blogspot.com/2007/09/new-cpa-bidding-product-available.html">CPA Targetting</a></p>


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		<title>A:B Advert Testing, A Cautionary Tale</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/ab-advert-testing-%e2%80%93-a-cautionary-tale/</link>
		<comments>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/ab-advert-testing-%e2%80%93-a-cautionary-tale/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:39:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Baker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Adgroups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Advert Text]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Testing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.adwordsprofessional.com/ab-advert-testing-%e2%80%93-a-cautionary-tale.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The conventional wisdom on PPC adverts on Google is that you should look to improve the click through rate, as it is generally accepted that this is an important attribute in the Quality Score, which determines the amount that you need to bid to get a certain position (or how high up the rankings you [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The conventional wisdom on PPC adverts on Google is that you should look to improve the click through rate, as it is generally accepted that this is an important attribute in the Quality Score, which determines the amount that you need to bid to get a certain position (or how high up the rankings you appear for your bid, if you prefer).  And this is probably true, and isn’t a bad idea.  But it’s definitely not a good idea to focus on the click through rate to the exclusion of all else. The click through rate is an indication of how interested people are in your advert, but if your advert does not accurately represent the content of your site, you’ll be enticing traffic that doesn’t convert very well, and may be putting off exactly the people that you should be attracting to your website.  This sounds like an easy thing to avoid, but it’s not quite as straightforward as it sounds. Suppose that you are a company that offers free marketing advice via a weekly e-mail that people have to sign up for. Your initial advert may read:</p>
<p class="ad">Free Marketing Advice Get Free Advice From Marketers Inc Free E-Mails Every Week MarketersInc.com/Advice</p>
<p>The advert does quite well, and gets conversions occasionally.  But you’re concerned that the second line is a fairly weak call to action, so you decide to try something different.</p>
<p class="ad">Free Marketing Advice Get Free Advice Here! Free E-Mails Every Week MarketersInc.com/Advice</p>
<p>You run it for a while, and it doubles the click through rate, so within a day or two you bin the old advert and go forward with the new one.  Then you look at the third line. It doesn’t really extol the benefits of the e-mails, so you try another line.</p>
<p class="ad">Free Marketing Advice Get Free Advice Here! Learn The Tricks Of The Trade MarketersInc.com/Advice</p>
<p>Even better click through rates, so you keep this one.  But the changes in the second line may lead people to believe that there is free information on your website, rather than from a marketing company. Whilst you’ll get more traffic to your site, it’ll be of poorer quality. And the change to the third line reinforces this.  But surely you’ll see a fall-off in the conversion rates, and keep the old adverts?  Not if you’re changing your adverts as soon as one appears significantly better than the other, based on click through rates.  Suppose that the campaign above starts out with a click through rate of 3%, then increases to 6% and 8%.  At the same time, the conversion rate falls from 10% to 7% to 4%. Finally, assume that the cost per click moves from £0.30 to £0.28 to £0.25  If you accept a 90% level of significance, your results look something like this.  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/google-adwords/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/table-29.jpg" alt="TABLE 29" /> There is no real falloff in the number of conversions, and a significance test of the difference in conversion rates is totally insignificant.  In fact, to get significant results (even at the 90% level) for the conversion rates, you’d need to wait much longer.  <img src="http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/google-adwords/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/table-30.jpg" alt="Table 30" /> To put that in context, if you were getting 400 impressions per day, the tests for click through rates would take (1 + 3 =) 4 days, whereas the tests for conversion rates would take (38 + 8 =) 46 days. That’s quite a lot longer.  So, what’s the conclusion here? Should you run your campaigns for ten times as long, to confirm that the new advert doesn’t hit your conversion rates? Bear in mind that the changes above are quite extreme , it’s unlikely that your results will show anything after waiting ten times as long , when do you draw the line, and say that the change is too small to matter?  Even here, we’ve not taken into account the impact of reducing the cost per click (which will slightly offset a reduced conversion rate), or the impact of increasing the total number of conversions (even at a slightly higher cost per conversion, this could still be a good thing).  Alternatively, should you just ignore the conversion rate, and hope for the best? Or try very hard not to change the meaning of the advert? You only need to write one bad advert to wreck your campaign.  Perhaps the best approach is to physically look at the conversion rates of the adverts that you are dropping , if they are lower, then ask the question œhave I caused this to happen? The fewer conversions that you are getting, the harder it’ll be to stop a problem , so monitor the conversion rate, and if it starts to drop, check to see if you’re the cause.</p>


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		<title>A:B Advert Testing &#8211; Is Statistical Significance Over-Rated?</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/ab-advert-testing-is-statistical-significance-over-rated/</link>
		<comments>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/ab-advert-testing-is-statistical-significance-over-rated/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2007 15:53:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Baker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Adgroups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Advert Text]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Testing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.adwordsprofessional.com/ab-advert-testing-%e2%80%93-is-statistical-significance-over-rated.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the face of it, probably a bit of a daft question. How can you be sure that your new advert is better than the old one, if you don&#8217;t wait to see if it&#8217;s statistically significant? And to an extent, that&#8217;s true. If you were to ignore significance completely, the moment somebody clicked through [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the face of it, probably a bit of a daft question. How can you be sure that your new advert is better than the old one, if you don&#8217;t wait to see if it&#8217;s statistically significant?  And to an extent, that&#8217;s true. If you were to ignore significance completely, the moment somebody clicked through one of your adverts, you&#8217;d decide that it was the better advert, and bin the other one. It&#8217;s quite possible that only 50% of the time you&#8217;d select the better advert, and for every improvement that you make to your advert, you make another change for the worse, and you don&#8217;t get any overall improvement at all.  But there&#8217;s a trade-off for statistical significance. Suppose that you have two adverts, one that generates a click-through rate of 5%, and one that generates a click-through rate of 10%. How long should you wait before you are sure the 10% advert really is better? If you get 30 impressions per day, it&#8217;ll take four days to be 85% certain (3/60 vs. 6/60 is significant at the 85% level). But if you want to be 95% certain, it&#8217;ll take eleven days (8.25/165 vs. 16.5/165 is significant at the 95% level). And to be 99% certain, it&#8217;ll take twenty days!  So, in the time that it takes to run one test at the 99% level, you can run five tests at the 85% level. Clearly, you can get far quicker improvements in your overall click-through rate, if most of these changes are genuinely for the better.  But what about the risks? You could select to keep adverts that are, in fact, worse than the existing ones (and you will, 15% of the time , any change to an advert will change the click-through rate; there are no ˜equally good&#8217; adverts).  But I would challenge that if an advert appears better at the 85% level, whilst it may be worse, the chances are very small that it&#8217;ll be much worse.  So, if you run five tests in those twenty days, you&#8217;ll probably make one change for the (slightly) worse, and four changes for the better. Still an improvement on the one change that you&#8217;d make if you were determined to wait until you were 99% certain that you were making the right choice , this is advertising, not a clinical trial!  Of course, this is a bit of an over-simplification. In reality, most of your advert tests will yield a much smaller return than doubling the click-through rate, and a lot of them will not be better than the old advert.  The first point here is quite important , the smaller the difference between the two adverts (increasingly true once you&#8217;ve entered an ongoing process of testing), the longer it&#8217;ll take to get strong significance, and the less risk there is in taking the wrong option occasionally. For example, if you were getting 30 impressions per day, and had adverts with 5% and 6% click-throughs, you&#8217;d get 85% significance after 75 days, but even 95% significance is going to take 193 days , nearly three times as long.  As for the second point, what if the new advert is performing worse than the existing one after a few days? It&#8217;s not significant, but, in a mirror of the argument so far, if it is in reality a better advert, is it likely to be much better? Is it worth waiting weeks to see if this advert, that&#8217;s probably worse than the existing one, is actually slightly better (remember that the smaller the difference, the longer it&#8217;ll take to be sure). Perhaps the time is better spent writing a new challenger, which may prove itself quickly?  So what level of significance should you use? Personally, I&#8217;d say that 85% is probably sufficient, but I can see an argument for 90%. I feel that running a test for three times as long (as an 85% test) to get to 95% is excessive , yes, you&#8217;ll get it wrong less often, but it&#8217;ll take a lot longer to generate improvements, and lets face it, your rivals probably aren&#8217;t standing still!  There is, of course, one problem that brings the whole process to a grinding halt. What if the two adverts are producing very similar results? It&#8217;s widely acknowledged that a small change to an advert can have a big impact, but more often than not, it has a very small impact. Everything stops until you get significant results, and the more similar the performance of the adverts, the longer it&#8217;ll take.  The solution is fairly clear , sooner or later, you&#8217;ll have to stop the test. You can either keep the existing advert, since the new advert hasn&#8217;t proven itself, or you can take whichever is the better to date, regardless of whether it&#8217;s significant or not (this&#8217;ll be the better advert more often than not).  I&#8217;d advocate the second option, although really, it doesn&#8217;t make much difference which you choose (since they are performing very similarly). An interesting claim , that under certain circumstances, you should take the advert that is performing better, regardless of whether it&#8217;s significant or not!  So what process have we arrived at?</p>
<ol>
<li>Decide before you run your new advert how long you are willing to wait for a result , this&#8217;ll depend on how long you&#8217;ve been testing (as you go on, the chances of finding a quick, big win decrease) and (obviously) how many impressions you are getting.</li>
<li>Set the advert live, checking regularly for significance. I&#8217;d recommend www.splittester.com, but any testing tool will do.</li>
<li>If, after a few days (longer if you&#8217;ve got little traffic), the new advert is worse than the old one, kill it, and write a new advert.</li>
<li>Once you&#8217;ve got 85% significance (or 90%, if you&#8217;re of a nervous disposition), keep the better advert.</li>
<li>If the deadline set in step one is reached without a significant result, keep the better advert, regardless of how small the difference is.</li>
</ol>


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		<title>PPC &#8211; How The Numpties Are Ruining It For Everyone</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/ppc-how-the-numpties-are-ruining-it-for-everyone/</link>
		<comments>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/ppc-how-the-numpties-are-ruining-it-for-everyone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2007 15:42:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Baker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Advert Text]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bidding]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.adwordsprofessional.com/ppc-how-the-numpties-are-ruining-it-for-everyone.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’m sorry, but they are. They are losing out, we are losing out, and the customers are losing out. Google’s doing alright out of it, but then they always seem to! Here’s what’s happening. Picture the scene , a big company decides it’s time to advertise on Google, so they call up their analytical people, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m sorry, but they are. They are losing out, we are losing out, and the customers are losing out. Google’s doing alright out of it, but then they always seem to!</p>
<p>Here’s what’s happening.  Picture the scene , a big company decides it’s time to advertise on Google, so they call up their analytical people, and ask them to make it happen. Perhaps they call a few PPC agencies to get some quotes, perhaps they don’t, but either way, they decide to do it themselves (how hard can it be?).  They read up on Adwords, maybe even do the Google exam (or maybe not) and launch themselves into it.  So what happens next? They work out how much they have to bid to get to the top of the search, and bid that. Maybe they get their wordy people to write some adverts, and away they go.  Needless to say, they are losing money more often than not. But why should the rest of us care? They’ve got plenty of cash, and if they want to give it away, let them.  Maybe this was true in the past with poor advertising campaigns , after all, if a big retailer puts a bad advert on the TV, or in a magazine, it doesn’t affect anyone else.  But this is PPC , and the whole concept is based around an auction. If you’re paying £0.50 per click, and appearing fourth, then somebody else appears and pays £5 per click to appear first, you’ll drop down to fifth. And get less clicks. And make less money. And if you’re an agency, working on behalf of a client, all they know is that they are getting less traffic, making less money and their rival is top of the pile , try explaining to them that you know what you’re doing and the competition don’t.  Suddenly everyone’s under pressure to increase their bids or lose traffic , and every time somebody increases their bids, they make the whole problem worse. It’s called inflation, and as long as there are have-a-go companies jumping onto the PPC bandwagon, it’s here to stay.  The solution? There isn’t one, really. You do the maths, and stick to your sweet spot, and accept that your campaign has just become less profitable.  Now imagine if you will, a world where everyone does the maths or hires a good agency to do the sums for them (and, believe it or not, most agencies don’t bother, they just guess). Suddenly, everyone is paying according to their site’s conversion rate , the more likely your clicks are to convert, the more you can afford to pay. So the sites that most closely match customer requirements win, and the ones that don’t, lose. The customer is happy as they are finding what they want, Google is happy, because it delivers relevant results, agencies are happy, because they can compete, not with unlimited budgets and silly bids, but by optimising the campaigns better.  Everyone wins, except the people with poor websites or uncompetitive prices.  Will this ever happen, or is this just a dream? I’d like to think that one day it’ll happen. Google are trying to make it clearer how the whole thing works (whilst not leaving their processes open to abuse), and over time, I think that people will learn to use this new medium.  But it won’t be soon. There are still agencies out there that take the money and do nothing in return, and agencies that simply don’t understand well enough how to make campaigns truly successful. So, for the time being at least, we’ll just have to keep explaining to customers why, contrary to intuition, top of the table is not the best place to be.</p>


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		<title>Pay Per Action</title>
		<link>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/pay-per-action/</link>
		<comments>http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/pay-per-action/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Mar 2007 19:10:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shane Quigley</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Adwords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay Per Action]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.epiphanysearch.co.uk/blog/pay-per-action.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Google breaks another barrier in advertising! After its achievements in Pay Per Click, Google is now pushing the boundaries of advertising even further by introducing a pay for performance model called Pay Per Action. You decide what to pay based on what action you want your site visitors to perform. Whether that be to fill [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Google breaks another barrier in advertising!</p>
<p>After its achievements in Pay Per Click, Google is now pushing the boundaries of advertising even further by introducing a pay for performance model called Pay Per Action.</p>
<p>You decide what to pay based on what action you want your site visitors to perform. Whether that be to fill in a sign up form, visit a particular page or even purchase a product.</p>
<p>Its only in beta testing in the US right now but it sounds like it should break some serious barriers to entry for small firms.</p>
<p>Read the full story here:</p>
<p><a href="http://services.google.com/payperaction/">Google&#8217;s Pay Per Action</a></p>


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